PENERAPAN METODE HOLT “WINTERS EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING ADITIF DALAM PERAMALAN CURAH HUJAN (Studi Kasus Kab.Deli Serdang)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.24114/jmk.v8i1.34057Keywords:
Holt –Winters Exponential Smoothing Aditif, MAPE.Abstract
Metode peramalan jangka panjang memegang peranan penting dalam berbagai aspek seperti dalam iklim. Banyak pembangunan infrastruktur dan perkebunan yang tidak optimal karena pengaruh iklim seperti curah hujan, seperti terhambatnya pembangunan infrastruktur dan perkebunan tidak mendapatkan hasil panen yang tidak maksimal. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mendapatkan hasil prediksi curah hujan 10 tahun ke depan di kawasan Deli Serdang dengan menggunakan metode Holt “Winters Exponential Smoothing Aditif. Penelitian dilakukan dengan menggunakan data web Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika Sumatera Utara ( Studi Kasus Kab. Deli Serdang ). Hasil analisis penelitian ini dilakukan secara kuantitatif dengan menggunakan teknik atau pendekatan statistik. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa hasil MAPE metode Holt“Winters Exponential Smoothing Aditif sangat baik (layak) digunakan untuk meramalkan curah hujan di Kabupaten Deli Serdang karena memiliki error lebih kecil dari 20% sehingga metode Holt “Winters Exponential Smoothing Aditif dapat digunakan untuk meramalkan curah hujan di Kabupaten Deli Serdang 10 tahun ke depan. Abstract” Long-term forecasting methods play an important role in various aspects such as in the climate. Many infrastructure development and plantations are not optimal due to climate influences such as rainfall, such as inhibitory of infrastructure development and plantations do not get non-maximum crops. This study aims to obtain the rainfall prediction of the next 10 years in the Deli Sergang area using the Holt -Winters Exponential Smoothing additive method. The study was conducted using meteorological web data, climatology, and geophysics of North Sumatra (Case Study Code. Deli Serdang). The results of this research analysis are conducted quantitatively using technical or statistical approaches. The results of this study indicate that the result of the mode of Holt-Winters Exponential method of additive sooth additive (decent) used to forecast rainfall in Deli Serdang District as it has a error smaller than 20% so that the method of Holt -Winters Exponential smoothing additives can be used to forecast rainfall in Deli Serdang Regency 10 years ahead.References
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