PERAMALAN JUMLAH DAYA TERPASANG MENURUT JENIS PELANGGAN DI PT. PLN (PERSERO) AREA MEDAN UNTUK TAHUN 2018

Authors

  • Sriwati . Manalu Universitas Negeri Medan
  • Abil . Mansyur Universitas Negeri Medan

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.24114/jmk.v5i3.23369

Keywords:

Peramalan, Smoothing Eksponensial, Metode Brown

Abstract

ABSTRAK Peramalan (Forecasting) adalah suatu kegiatan untuk memperkirakan apa yang akan terjadi pada masa mendatang. Peramalan diperlukan karena adanya perbedaan waktu antara kesadaran akan dibutuhkan suatu kebijakan baru dengan waktu pelaksanaan kebijakan tersebut. Tujuan dari penulisan ini adalah untuk menerapkan metode smoothing eksponensial linier ganda satu parameter dari Brown dalam mengetahui ramalan daya terpasang untuk masing-masing jenis pelanggan di PT.PLN (Persero) Area Medan untuk tahun 2018. Berdasarkan perhitungan yang sudah dilakukan besarnya daya terpasang untuk masing-masing jenis pelanggan untuk tahun 2018 mengalami peningkatan yaitu pelanggan sosial 8,73%, rumah tangga 5,55%, bisnis 3,97%, industri 2,49% dan pemerintah 1,55%. Dan nilai yang menghasilkan nilai MSE paling kecil untuk masing-masing pelanggan ialah 0,47969 untuk sosial, 0,6069 untuk rumah tangga, 0,0669 untuk bisnis, 0,54708 untuk industri dan 0,65592 untuk pemerintah. Kata kunci:  Peramalan, Smoothing Eksponensial, Metode Brown ABSTRACTForecasting (Forecasting) is an activity to predict what will happen in the future. Forecasting is necessary because of the time difference between awareness will be required a new policy by the time the implementation of the policy. The purpose of this writing is to apply a linear exponential smoothing method is the double one parameter from Brown in knowing forecast power attached to each type of customers in the PT. PLN (Persero) Medan Area for the year 2018. Based on the calculation that was done the magnitude of power attached to each type of customers for the year 2018 has increased social customers 8,73% , household 5.55%, , business 3,97%, industry 2.49% and 1,55% government. And the value that generates the most small MSE value to each customer is 0,47969 for social, 0,6069 to households, to businesses 0,0669 for industry 0,54708 and 0,65592 to the government. Keywords:  forecasting, Exponential Smoothing Methods, Brown

Author Biographies

Sriwati . Manalu, Universitas Negeri Medan

Prodi Matematika

Abil . Mansyur, Universitas Negeri Medan

Prodi Matematika

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Published

2019-12-02

Issue

Vol. 5 No. 3 (2019): Karismatika

Section

Articles

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